Forecasts Captured 3x Day-Ahead Energy Premium in ERCOT on February 20th

On February 20th, ERCOT saw record-breaking electricity demand:

• Load peaked at over 80 GW
• Over 4.5 GW of battery storage discharged into this peak
• Day-Ahead Energy prices cleared at ~$900 (3x premium over Real-Time Energy)

While Day-Ahead (DA) Energy had been clearing higher than Real-Time (RT) Energy in the morning fairly consistently, February 20th stood out due to the magnitude of the gap. DA prices cleared at ~$900, driven by ERCOT’s need to secure resources amid extreme cold, high demand forecasts (80 GW+), and limited renewable generation before the morning ramp.

Before the DA Market close, Tyba’s forecasts identified a high probability that DA Energy would clear at elevated prices and bid accordingly, securing premium pricing for customers.

Here’s how it unfolded.

Tyba’s forecasts identified the exact two-hour window when DA prices would peak. And had high confidence DA Energy would clear higher than RT Energy or any Ancillary Services (AS).

Tyba’s optimizer bid into DA for the two hours of the spike and, during the operating day, ensured assets were fully charged and ready, allowing them to dispatch at full capacity into the highest prices of the day.

On February 20th, a cold front drove Texas electricity demand to record highs, exceeding 80 GW. 

Step 1: Tyba’s Model Identified High-Value DA Opportunity

Tyba’s platform continuously evaluates both DA and RT markets to identify the best revenue opportunities. In the lead-up to February 20th, it identified a recurring trend: DA prices had been clearing significantly higher than RT during the 6-8 AM window.

For the February 20th operating day, Tyba’s forecasts signaled a high probability that DA prices would clear well above RT during the 6-8am window, presenting a high revenue potential opportunity.

Step 2: Tyba’s Optimizer Bid into DA Before Market Close

Tyba’s optimizer identified DA Energy as the best revenue opportunity and configured a bidding strategy to allocate all available energy into DA during this peak window. 

By ensuring assets were fully charged and ready, Tyba customers dispatched at full capacity into the highest peak of the day — maximizing earnings and securing the full value of the DA premium.

To ensure assets met their commitments, the optimizer continuously monitored:

• State of Charge (SOC)
• All buying opportunities in the preceding hours to ensure assets were fully charged – at the lowest available price – prior to the discharge window

Step 3: RT Prices Underperformed, Validating Tyba’s Forecast

As the operating day unfolded, RT prices cleared at ~$200—closely matching Tyba’s forecast and reinforcing the accuracy of the model.

Meanwhile, DA prices cleared at ~$900 (3x higher than RT) securing significantly greater revenue for those who secured market awards ahead of time.

Step 4: Revenue Impact – Maximizing Earnings 

By leveraging Tyba’s platform, storage operators who followed the automated strategy captured ~$1.79 per kW across 2 hours.

With Tyba providing accurate DA and RT forecasts and optimization, assets were effectively positioned in DA, and seamlessly hit the spike.

A well-balanced strategy means looking at both DA and RT to find the best revenue opportunities — not just reacting to market volatility. Forecasting which market will clear higher, and when, is key to maximizing earnings.

Tyba’s forecasting and optimization help storage operators plan ahead with confidence, manage SOC, adapt to market shifts, and position assets where they’ll earn the most.